Prediction based on the polar field rise rate suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
Our latest work was published in HMI Science Nuggets on April 28th 2022.
A new model, which explores the polar field build-up rate and the amplitude of the following cycle, predicts a slightly stronger Cycle 25 than previously thought. It shows physical link of the polar field buildup with the Waldmeier Effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24.
Fig: Comparison of our prediction with observations. Temporal variation of the observed SSN is shown by the blue curve. Squares and vertical lines represent the predicted amplitudes and their errors based on the rise rate (WE2). The time of the peak of predicted Cycle 25 is shown by the vertical dotted line with the error by a horizontal arrow. The prediction for Cycle 25 using the rise rate of the previous cycle’s polar field is shown by a (dark red) filled circle.
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Invited Talk of Dr. Bidya Binay Karak at ISSI Dynamo Workshop on 16th June 2022. [Upcoming]
Invited Talk of Akash Biswas at ISSI Dynamo Workshop on 16th June 2022. [Upcoming]
Invited Talk by Dr. Bidya Binay Karak at IAUGA2022 on 2nd August 2022 . [Upcoming]
Contributed Talk by Vindya Vashishth at IAUGA2022 on 2nd August 2022 . [Upcoming]
E-Talk by Anu B Sreedevi at IAUGA2022 . [Upcoming]